Lisa Haselton’s Interview with Piper Bayard

I’m delighted this week to be interviewed by Lisa Haselton at her Book Reviews & Interviews site. The interview includes a bit about our latest espionage thriller release, The Caiman of Iquitos, an excerpt from the book, and a little about me, Piper Bayard.

From the Interview:

Welcome, Piper. Please tell us about your current release.

The Caiman of Iquitos is our second full-length novel in our Apex Predator series. In it, retired CIA officer John Viera and his network of former military and intelligence operatives must hunt down and neutralize an enemy agent before he can deliver First World nuclear technology to a billionaire cartel.

What inspired you to write this book?

Current global dynamics inspired Holmes and I to write this book, and it appears to be timely. The Wall Street Journal just published an article this past weekend speculating on the likelihood that billionaires, corporations, and crime syndicates could soon have nuclear capabilities.

CLICK HERE

FOR THE REST OF THE INTERVIEW

The Other Players: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Five

Jan9

Bayard & Holmes

~ Jay Holmes

In the wake of the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israeli citizens on October 7, people were left wondering how Israel could have been taken by surprise and how Hamas could be surprised at Israel’s response. In our first four articles, we look at different aspects of those questions See links below. Today, we review some external influences and players in this ongoing conflict.

Syria

In earlier decades, Syria would have loudly denounced anything that Israel did in relation to Gaza, the West Bank, or Lebanon. Syria’s current Dictator Assad is now more concerned with keeping himself alive another day than with denouncing Israel.

With Russia, Turkey, Iran, ISIS, Al Qaeda, the US, the Kurds, and various other, smaller groups constantly vying for position and influence in Syria, Assad and his much-depleted forces need to stay focused on survival. As a result, Syria can’t contribute much to the current Hamas/Hezbollah genocide against Israel.

Syria is dependent on Iran and Russia for its survival so it is obliged to make threats and denouncements. However, Syria’s latest threats were met by a promise from Israel that the Israeli Air Force would demolish the Damascus airport/air force base. Syrian Dictator Assad 3.0 absolutely needs that air base to continue functioning in order to keep himself alive and functioning.

In sum, Syria is not able to support either Hamas or Syria’s close friends in Hezbollah right now. That won’t change in the near future.

Hamas’ West Bank Competitors

Some of Hamas’s terrorist competitors in the West Bank, such as Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) splinter groups, Palestinian Authority puppet groups, and Hamas junior league puppets, have been actively attacking Israel since October 7. The Israeli responses have been swift and effective.

**Israeli West Bank Barrier Near Ramallah**
**Image W. Hagens, public domain**

Besides worrying about the IDF, those competing terrorist groups also have to worry about each other. Terrorist groups are as proliferous in the West Bank as trolls are on social media, and they all want the same money and followers. Each time a new one springs up, larger groups such as Hamas and the PLO have to decide whether or not to kill them or incorporate them. While they all have the mission of killing as many Jews and other non-Muslims as possible, none of these groups wants to expend all of its resources and manpower fighting the IDF and leave itself vulnerable to its jihadi competitors.

Collectively, however, they will continue to be a threat to Israel that will tie up a significant number of IDF forces. What life will be like in the West Bank after Israel feels it has done enough damage to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon remains to be seen. I’m guessing that in 2024, the West Bank won’t become a great place to live.

Russia

Vladimir Putin may often seem stupid and lacking in vision, but he is at least consistent in his lack of vision, and he is predictable. Vlady hates being predictable, but when the voices in your head only ever say the same things, you are bound to be predictable.

When it comes to Hamas and Israel, Putin desperately wants the war in Gaza and Israel to continue for as long as possible. A US dollar or artillery round sent to Israel cannot be sent to Ukraine. Russia also needs to support the Iranian agenda in the region. Without drones and electronic parts from Iran, Russia would be in even worse shape in its disastrous invasion of Ukraine. Russia will simply continue to hope for the worst in Gaza and Israel.

Iran

The war between Hamas and Israel is a wonderful thing for Iran. Iran is using this war as an opportunity to expand its influence in Iraq and Syria while building up its forces in Yemen via its Houthi errand boys. Iran’s terrorist teams in Iraq and Syria have attacked US troops in the area. Those proxy terrorist groups, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon, have paid a higher price for those attacks than anticipated, so Iran has shifted its main efforts to the Houthis.

The Houthis

**Houthi flag**
**Wikimedia Commons, CCA 4.0 Intl**

The Houthis in Yemen currently exercise immense influence on the Hamas-Israel war. The group has been involved in an ongoing war against the rest of Yemen and against Saudi Arabia. However, the Houthis’ larger, overreaching goal is for everyone to either become a Shia Muslim or die, and Houthi flags includes the phrases “Death to America,” “Death to Israel,” and “A Curse upon the Jews.”

The broader, non-tribal name for the Houthis is “Ansar Allah,” which translates to “supporters of God.” The Houthis, or “God’s little helpers,” are not the brightest folks in the world of Islamic terrorists. Unlike many Islamic terror groups, the Houthis seem to be inflexible and unimaginative, and the better-educated and more well-traveled members among them are always held in suspicion by the leadership. The Iranians involved with the Houthis do all they can to promote that outlook because they want to remain the principal influence over Houthi Jihadists.

What Ansar Allah lacks in vision and sophistication, it more than makes up for in Iranian funding, training, weapons, and leadership. Thanks to Iranian leadership, the Houthis have realized a tremendous growth spurt in membership by shifting their marketing efforts from their tribal fight in Yemen to world Islamic conquest. Estimates of their current membership vary wildly, but they may have more than 100,000 members. How many of their members are actually interested in actually fighting and how many simply see the Houthis as the current best source of groceries in Yemen is difficult to say.

As for other countries, to a lesser extent, Russia has supported the Houthis, as well. North Korea has backed the Houthis to the degree that it is willing to sell the Houthis weapons. The Eritreans have friendly relations with the Houthis, but they deny it. If the Houthis were wiped out, Oman would likely sit on the sidelines and breathe a sigh of relief while calling for peace. Without Iranian backing, the Houthis would soon be eradicated by their opponents in Yemen and the military forces of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE. That makes it easy to predict that the Houthis will continue to do Iran’s bidding.

**USS Carney engages Houthi missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles in the Red Sea on Oct 19, 2023.**
**U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Aaron Lau**

Iran is currently using the Houthis to launch missile and drone attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. To reach or depart from the Suez Canal, ships must navigate through the Red Sea. Major shipping companies like Maersk have temporarily suspended its use of the Suez Canal and are rerouting their ships around Africa. This is a much slower and far more expensive trip. It is also a more time consuming trip, which means that a company’s cargo ship will be able to make fewer trips along the longer routes over time. This means that oil and other goods which normally pass through the Suez Canal will take longer to arrive and will be more expensive, as well.

This has already started to drive up the cost of petroleum. Any increase in the cost of petroleum is great news for both Russia and Iran. Russia is a major petroleum player, and it needs the money from petroleum to continue its invasion of Ukraine. Iran needs the money, and time, to invest in its nuclear weapons program.

As is the case with Russia, the Israeli-Hamas battles in Gaza are fantastic news for Iran. Iran will continue to push the Houthis to attack Red Sea shipping, and it will push Hamas and Hezbollah to glorious martyrdom in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon. Martyrdom is a wonderful thing when you can get someone else to do it for you.

Europe

Europe’s Influence over the Israel-Hamas War could be immense, but most European politicians would normally prefer to limit themselves to slogans which they can update daily in response to current political fashions.

Europe is understandably focused on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Most Europeans, and Westerners in general, have little interest in Hamas and even less concept of what Hamas actually is. What Westerners and their politicians do understand is economic inflation.

One of the likely unintended consequences of the Iranian-Houthi missile and drone attacks on Western shipping is that Western countries are starting to become directly involved in the Red Sea issue and more concerned with the war in Gaza. For example, Spain, which had recently tried to limit itself to the usual “deep concerns” about humanitarian issues in Gaza, has now agreed to join a NATO-led maritime coalition to keep shipping open in the Red Sea. Several other European countries have joined in, as well.

The United States

**NYC DSA/Jewish Voice for Peace**
**Wikimedia Commons CC0 1.0**
**Universal Public Domain Dedication**

The US’s response to Hamas’s current war against Israel is complex, but it is not particularly surprising. As in Europe, those among the US left initially cheered for the war while Hamas was raping and murdering Israeli civilians and burning Israeli infants alive. However, once Israel was able to organize a counter-attack, these same leftist war-mongers shifted their passions and started screaming for an end to the violence. Now that Hamas is taking a beating, the usual suspects suddenly find themselves deeply concerned with the people of Gaza and think the Israelis can all drop dead. The US left is currently demanding a cease fire in Gaza and for the US government to stop supporting Israel.

At the same time, more groups of US Americans take a dim view of Hamas and other terrorists groups, and they are pressuring the US government to step up its support for Israel. Publicly, the current US administration will release a stream of statements about the urgency of a humanitarian cease fire, the need for a “two state solution,” and all the other usual political catch phrases.

The bottom line is that the US will continue to support Israel while pleading for “peace.”

The UN

If you chuckled when you read “UN,” you already know the answer. The UN will make no difference in the Hamas-Israel war. It has been expensive and useless for seven decades, and it is not going to change.

Conclusion

One part of the US and European response that is bound to quickly become more complicated is the West’s response to attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Since this is an issue with its own momentum independent of the Hamas-Israel war, it deserves its own article.

In my opinion, with consideration for all the international factors at play in the Hamas-Israel war, the war will continue for several more months with varying degrees of intensity. When Israel is satisfied that it has sufficiently degraded Hamas’s capacity for large terror strikes from Gaza, it may well try, with international support, to set up a new and just-as-useless government in Gaza headed by non-Hamas Islamic factions. Israel then will likely conduct major air operations against Hezbollah.

That will officially “end” this chapter of the wars against Israel, but not for long. As long as there are groups of people who are willing to savage others to create the world in their own tiny image, there will be wars.

For previous articles in this series, see the following:

What’s Happened So Far: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part One

Israel’s Constraints and Failures: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Two

Hamas’s Internal Influences: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Three

Where Hamas’s Neighbors Stand: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Four

Jan9

Bayard & Holmes

~ Jay Holmes

Nearly everyone has influence on the Israel-Hamas War. If you buy gasoline in Asia, Europe, or the Western Hemisphere, you have a bit of influence on the current battle between Hamas and Israel. If the Russia-Ukraine War matters to you, you have a bit of influence on the war. If you’re a bored college student in the US, or pretending to be a college student in the US, and you’re in need of a fresh topic to rage against, we’ve got good news for you. Thanks to the market-driven Western media outlets, you, too, have a minute speck of influence on the Hamas war against Israel. Just remember to make an anguished face while protesting. Happy-looking protesters don’t make the news reels.

**Civilians on a Beach in Gaza Who Have Virtually No Influence Over the Matter**
**Image by Gus, Dutch Wikipedia**
**Public Domain**

If you are in Gaza, and you’re not a member of Hamas, your influence on events is low. If a shrill Western journalist registers a 1 on the “1–100 influence scale,” your influence as a civilian in Gaza is perhaps 1/1,000th of that of the journalist. You also don’t eat or dress as well as a Western journalist.

Accounting for all foreign pressures coming to bear on the Hamas 2023 Calamity is beyond the scope of this article. The analysts over at the CIA will undoubtedly still be rushing to debate commas and adjectives on their 10,000th edit of their overall assessment of Hamas 2023 long after the guns and rockets temporarily fall silent in Gaza. Before a final version of that report is approved, the funding for the project will be pulled. Don’t let that concern you. The current administration has no intention of reading that report. They already have their playbook for this war, and it is brief and simple. But we’ll get to that later.

In the meantime, for our own entertainment, let’s look at the major external influences on the Hamas 2023 Terrorist Extravaganza, beginning with the simplest cases–the neighbors.

**Map of Hamas’s Neighbors**
**Image by CIA, public domain**

Jordan

Jordan’s position is easy to understand. Internally, the Jordanian government will announce heartfelt concern for the civilians in Gaza and beg for a cease-fire. In the meantime, Jordan will privately beg Israel to kill as many Hamas as they can, as soon as they can. The notion of a triumphant Hamas gaining a dominant position in the West Bank is nauseating to the Jordanian government. When contemplating living next door to a more-powerful Hamas versus living next door to Israel, Zionism starts sounding like a lovely idea.

Egypt

Egypt’s position isn’t much different. Egypt doesn’t want more Palestinians in its country, and World Jihad has lost its appeal to a majority of Egyptians. Yes, the Muslim Brotherhood’s radical faction in Egypt hates Israel, but right now they are busy trying to avoid being slapped down by the Egyptian government. The Egyptian radicals’ opinion in this case matters about as much as a deranged Cornell University Professor’s does, as in not one bit.

Egypt is not going to attack Israel. It will publicly call for a cease fire and will continue to help Qatar and others to negotiate hostage releases. Quietly, the Egyptians will encourage Israel to quickly kill as many Hamas as possible. They want this crisis to be gone. That’s it.

Turkey

The always-annoying and rarely-effective Turkish Dictator Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has loudly denounced Israel’s operations in Gaza. He will continue to remain loud in his protests, though the world’s major media outlets have grown momentarily bored with him.

**Actual Photo of Erdoğan in a Private Moment**

To Erdoğan’s dismay, building an intercontinental Ottoman Empire is not as easy as it might appear to be on a map table. He’s behind schedule on that project. Many of Erdoğan’s most important supporters don’t want to take a major financial hit by involving Turkey in the Gaza quagmire. As Hamas lookouts search the horizon for the reinforcing Turkish fleet, they remain disappointed. That won’t change.

Sultan Erdoğan will keep talking. He never stops. He wants to be the dominant player in this current Hamas Drama. He isn’t and won’t be.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s position is very clear and it doesn’t deny it. It has pointedly ignored Hamas in this current war. The Saudis are enjoying diplomatic and commercial ties to Israel, and they are tired of Hamas.

Here’s a clue. On October 22, Qatar and Egypt were working frantically to finalize a deal for Hamas to release two of its female hostages. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, however, was publicly busy Instagramming with Portuguese soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo about the future of Esports in Saudi Arabia. This was not an accident. Saudi Arabia Esports is about the future, and Hamas is about the past. The Saudi Royal Family is tired of having its foreign relations heavily influenced by the whims of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), and all their splinter groups.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Since signing the Abraham Accords in 2020, the UAE and Israel have been enjoying closer cooperation on trade, military matters, and shared Intelligence. The UAE’s response to Hamas Mayhem 2023 has been clear. Like Saudi Arabia, it is tired of having its foreign relations determined by the whims of Hamas.

The UAE has loudly denounced Hamas’s brutal October 7 terror attacks. Since the Israeli counter strikes into Gaza, the UAE has tried to broker diplomatic efforts and has supported a UN motion to call for a cease fire in Hamas. Privately, it is unlikely that the UAE will try to pressure Israel to halt its operations against Hamas.

Qatar

Qatar’s position in the current Hamas terror attacks is fairly complicated. We could write a long book about it, but nobody would pay for that book so I will instead be brief.

Since 2018, Qatar has been financing Hamas with monthly payments. Depending on who you ask, those payments are somewhere between $12 million and $30 million a month. The quiet and efficient US Treasury Department Intelligence Bureau probably has a pretty good read on those payments, but it doesn’t make that information public. The purpose of these payments was to fund infrastructure, health care, and public employees’ salaries in Gaza.

Critics have argued that the money was going to build a bigger, better terror army for Hamas. Personally, I am not certain how much of the money went to the humanitarian purposes that they were intended to support. Israel, itself, is divided on this topic. Netanyahu, himself, allowed the payments to pass through Israel to Hamas in the hopes of preventing a bigger humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Many Israeli politicians and military people were against the payments.

They viewed the payments as more financing for Hamas in its war against Israel.

The PLO saw the payments as a way of empowering Hamas to the detriment of the PLO/Palestinian Authority. Once Hamas began its current terrorist strikes against Israel, Qatar found itself in an uncomfortable position.

In the last six years, Qatar has been enjoying better relations with Israel and the West.

Given that Qatar is a small nation living across a small body of water from the Iranian Ayatollah-brand jihadists, this matters a great deal to Qatar.

Qatar has responded to Hamas’s current terror strikes against Israel by very publicly working to arrange hostage releases. Sometime prior to December 12, fabulously wealthy top Hamas officials living in Qatar left without their known cell phones. Their whereabouts have not been made public. Some speculate that they are in Iran or possibly Pakistan. We assume that they are being hunted by Israeli intelligence services. Qatar did not want their liquidation to occur inside of Qatar.

Currently, Qatar is cooperating with the US, Israel, and Egypt in communicating with Hamas in the hopes of obtaining the release of however many hostages are still alive in Gaza. It remains to be seen what the relationship between Qatar and Hamas will look like after the guns temporarily fall silent in Gaza.

Lebanon/Hezbollah

For purposes of understanding the Hamas 2023 terrorist activity, we can fuse these two foreign groups together. That doesn’t mean that the government of Lebanon agrees with anything that Hezbollah does. It just means the Lebanese government doesn’t matter. It is impotent in dealing with Hezbollah.

On the other hand, Hezbollah is in a position to greatly influence events in the current Hamas terror operations, and it has. To the best of its ability, it will continue to do so. Though always hampered by its collective narrow world view and its dependence on Iran for weapons, intelligence, and leadership, Hezbollah is a major player in this war.

**Hezbollah Training Exercise, May 2023**
**Image by Tasnim News Agency Reporter**
**Tasnim News Agency**
**Wikimedia Commons, CCA 4.0 Intl**

Hezbollah has launched missiles into Israel in support of Hamas, but it has paid a high price for each launch due to swift counterstrikes by Israel. Hezbollah does not wish to be seen as a non-player in this conflict.

Hezbollah’s funding sources are varied across Africa and the Middle East, and it can’t afford to lose its “terrorist cred.” Otherwise, the funding currently flowing its way could quickly flow to competing terrorist groups. Big league jihad is a competitive business, and financing is abundant, but not unlimited.

Hezbollah currently helps Hamas tremendously by requiring Israel to keep a large portion of its military poised for major strikes. Now that the Hamas Terror Festival has not gone as well as many jihadists had hoped, Hezbollah is wondering what Israel might do once Israel feels it has sufficiently damaged Hamas’s terror capabilities in Gaza. Hezbollah is currently digging in and desperately looking for more munitions as it waits for the other Israeli shoe to drop. Hezbollah assumes it will drop on them.

The competing interests of the aforementioned groups are some of the forces influencing Hamas in its decision-making processes. In our next article, we will consider the rest of the major sources of influence on Hamas.

For previous articles in this series, see the following:

What’s Happened So Far: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part One

Israel’s Constraints and Failures: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Two

Hamas’s Internal Influences: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Three

Jan9

Bayard & Holmes

~ Jay Holmes

The first question that many people asked once they became aware of the October 7 Hamas terror attack on Israel was, “How could Israel allow themselves to be surprised by a Hamas terror attack?” The second question most of us were asking was, “How could Hamas leadership not know that such savagery would compel Israel to a major invasion of Gaza?” Hamas’s complete lack of foresight seems obvious enough. Answering why it suffered this lack is far more complex than it might seem on the surface. We offer our analysis for debate. We accept that not everyone will agree with us, and we invite everyone to take their best shot at this round of post-catastrophe armchair generalship.

In Part One: What’s Happened So Far, we have a timeline of the attacks and responses up to December 4. In Part Two: Israel’s Constraints and Failures, we try to shed light on the question of how Israel was taken by surprise. In this Part Three, we will consider who Hamas’s internal decision makers and major influence wielders might be. It’s easy enough to assume that Hamas’s leadership had the lion’s share of the blame for not seeing the Israeli freight train speeding down that policy hill toward Gaza. In the case of Hamas, though, even that simple and obvious assumption is less certain than it might seem to be on the surface.

Ismail Haniyeh, Chairman of the Political Bureau

**Ismail Haniyeh with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei**
**Image from Ali Khamenei Website**
**Wikimedia Commons, CCA 4.0 Intl**

Hamas has been loud and consistent in its anti-Israel genocidal dogma since it announced its formation in 1987. Western observers might take that as evidence of unanimity and equanimity within Hamas. However, unlike the situation in most political systems, Hamas’s leadership does not all reside in the territory that it claims as home.

Hamas’s top leader, Ismail Haniyeh, holds the title of “Chairman of the Political Bureau.” According to Hamas, he is the group’s top leader. He has chief authority for Hamas’s foreign relations, and he is responsible for overseeing Hamas and seeking funding for the organization. Since Hamas relies heavily on foreign funding, Haniyeh’s job is critical to its survival. After all, a bunch of terrorists with no money for manufacturing missiles and suicide vests is not going to get much done.

Haniyeh does not live in Gaza. Until a week ago, he lived in Qatar, and, unlike the average person in Gaza, Haniyeh lived in luxury. Since he manages foreign funds ostensibly destined for Gaza, he can afford to. At this point, he has disappeared without taking his cell phone.

Deputy Chairman Saleh “Sally” al-Arouri, Theoretical Second In Command

**Saleh “Sally” al-Arouri**
**Russia-Hamas Meeting 2022**
**Image by Council of the Federation of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation**
**Wikimedia Commons, CCA 4.0 Intl**

Haniyeh’s theoretical second in command is Deputy Chairman Saleh al-Arouri, or “Sally,” as he is known among the workers in the top brothels in Lebanon. Sally also resides outside of Gaza, principally in Lebanon but sometimes in Qatar. Like his boss, Haniyeh, Sally lived in comfort until last week, when, like his boss, he disappeared without taking his phone.

Sally’s job is similar to any other “vice” position in politics. He is there to take over if Israeli agents catch up to Haniyeh, and in the meantime, he is the head scapegoat for any Hamas foreign policy problems. Oddly enough, Sally is simultaneously also theoretically in charge of Hamas military operations in the West Bank. This particular wrinkle in Sally’s professional terrorist life leaves him simultaneously striving for somewhat conflicting goals.

Hamas exercises dictatorial powers in Gaza. It does not have such complete power in the West Bank. In the West Bank, Hamas has competition from various smaller terrorist groups, such as the old Islamic Jihad, the radicals within what remains of the “Palestinian Authority,” and various and sundry Islamic jihadist upstart groups. As a result, what is best for Hamas in Gaza on any given day is not always what is best for Hamas in the West Bank.

Yahya Sinwar, Theoretical Leader of Hamas in Gaza

**Yahya Sinwar**
**Image by Hadi Mohammad**
**Fars Media Corporation**
**Wikimedia Commons, CCA 4.0 Intl, No Higher Resolution**

Inside of Gaza, Yahya Sinwar. Yahya, known to some as Yehya, is the theoretical big boss. The problem is that not every Hamas member in Gaza agrees that he is the local boss.

Sinwar was a Gaza terrorist long before the formation of Hamas. He is believed to have a paranoid personality, and much of his occupation as a terrorist has been dedicated to weeding out disloyal members of the organization. He spends a fair amount of time securing his authority, as well as his survival — something he has been doing since his high school days in Gaza. As a result, Sinwar is skilled at making and aggravating enemies, and his constant elimination of perceived threats has made him unpopular among the lower ranks. He can never fully trust anyone under his authority, and nobody under his authority can fully trust him.

According to Yousef al-Mansi, Hamas’s former Communications Minister for Hamas and propaganda specialist, Sinwar leads the most radical faction of Islam, he suffers delusions of grandeur, and he is a madman to have conducted the October 7 attack. Al-Mansi says Hamas is splintering, and that many of Hamas’s adherents in Gaza do not agree with Sinwar. Al-Mansi claims there have been 17,000 deaths so far, and that most of the people of Gaza blame Sinwar for those deaths and no longer support him.

It is worth noting that al-Mansi was in the custody of Shin Bet when he said those things; however, there were signs of tension between him and Sinwar before he was in Israeli custody.

Muhammad Deif and the Tangled Web

Sinwar’s technical second in command, who is not actually subordinate, is Hamas’s military leader in Gaza, Muhammad Deif. Deif, previously known as Muhammad al-Masri, graduated with a chemistry degree from Gaza University in 1988. He quickly used his chemistry knowledge to contribute to Hamas’s earliest terror bombing activities against Israel. His newer last name, “Deif,” means “traveler” in Arabic, and it is a reference to his constant moving around Gaza to avoid assassination by Israel.

Notice we say that Deif is not actually subordinate to Sinwar. That’s because there is no clear chain of command inside of Gaza or the West Bank. A fair description of the tangled web of Hamas leadership would require a multi-volume work. The hierarchy of Hamas continues downward from Deif and is complex at every level. For the purposes of answering the question of how Hamas failed to predict Israel’s strong response to the October 7 slaughter of civilians, understanding that there is no concrete org chart should suffice.

Though Hamas does its best to present a unified front to the world, its decision-making processes are time-consuming, complex, and beset by internal conflicts. Also, its leadership hierarchy structure creates problems in operational decisions. One obvious problem to the decision-making process that led to the October 7 attacks was that Hamas leaders outside of Gaza were not at risk for the consequences of generating the wrath of Israel inside of Gaza.

The Abraham Accords

In spite of the internal conflicts, one critical thing that all Hamas leaders do have in common is that the implementation of the Abraham Accords is a catastrophe for Hamas. The Accords establish peaceful relations and economic ties between Israel and more of its regional neighbors. When other Middle East countries make Gaza and the West Bank less of a priority, this spells disaster for Hamas.

Remember when terrorists in Egypt murdered Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981? They did so because Sadat had made peace with Israel. For the more radical members of The Muslim Brotherhood, this peace was intolerable, and planning and conducting a suicide attack against Sadat presented no moral quandaries to their radical decision makers.

Hamas Is Not a Political Organization

**Hamas 25th Anniversary in Gaza**
**Image by Hadi Mohammad**
**Fars Media Corporation**
**Wikimedia Commons, CCA 4.0 Intl**

Another major factor that cannot be overemphasized is that Hamas, similar to radical factions of The Muslim Brotherhood, was not founded as a political organization and has never been one. Hamas has struggled over the last two decades to become more effective politically on the Middle Eastern stage, but it was founded as a religious terrorist group, and it remains a religious terrorist group to this day.

A critical part of Hamas’s belief system is that martyrdom is a good thing. If a person in Gaza dies as a result of Hamas’s actions, Hamas views it as a heroic event. It blames Israel for the death, and it celebrates that the dead hero is going on to a fantastic new life, their version of heaven.

Hamas adherents also see themselves as being very popular in Gaza. If they lose ten thousand terrorists, they believe they can easily recruit ten thousand more. As a result, the organization does not feel a need to value its fighters the same way as any Western country does. From Hamas’s point of view, life is cheap and easily replaceable. Because of this point of view, even if Hamas should have, or possibly did, predict the basic scope of Israel’s response to the October 7 terrorist attacks, that prediction would not have necessarily dissuaded Hamas from conducting the attacks.

Hamas Might Have Wanted This Response

This leaves us with an alternative answer to the question of Hamas’s intelligence failure. It is possible that it was not a failure at all. It is possible that Hamas’s prime objective was to cause a strong, violent reaction from Israel in order to further derail the Abraham Accords.

While Hamas’s internal thinking and problems might seem to explain how it could easily arrive at such a self-destructive decision, the external factors are even more glaring. In Part Four, we will examine how external pressures helped enable Hamas on the road to the October 7 disaster.

**Child’s bedroom in Kfar Aza after Oct 7**
**Image public domain**
**Credit — Hamas**

What’s Happened So Far: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part One

Israel’s Constraints and Failures: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Two

Where Hamas’s Neighbors Stand: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Four

Israel’s Constraints and Failures: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Two

Jan9

Bayard & Holmes

~ Jay Holmes

Many of us in Western nations are wondering why the Israeli government did not act preemptively to prevent the massive attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023. Complete and accurate answers and lessons learned from this chapter in the Hamas-Israel War will take a few years to fully develop. For the time being, we can safely make some initial observations and postulate some early answers based on what we know thus far in this intelligence perspective on the Hamas attacks. (See Part One for a timeline of the attacks and responses up to December 4.)

**Hamas Terrorists Paraglide into Israel**
**Screen Grab from Hamas Video, Oct 7, 2023**

Warnings

Was the Israeli government completely blind to the pending attack? No. We know that is not the case.

On October 9, Egyptian intelligence announced that prior to the October 7 attacks by Hamas, Egypt had given Israel repeated warnings that Hamas intended to conduct a major terrorist attack against it. We know that included a direct phone call from Egypt’s Intelligence Minister to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sometime in September.

Iran made repeated loud threats of grand scale attacks against the “Zionist devils” and the “American Great Satan” prior to October 7.

The US Intelligence Community also warned US politicians of “unusual Hamas activity” and a higher than normal threat from Hamas based on multiple sources of intelligence. We know that information from the Israeli government was used in formulating that warning.

Pop Media

The New York Times has published “copies of documents” showing that “Israel knew in detail about Hamas’ attacks over a year in advance.” My use of quotation marks in this paragraph is perhaps too liberal. I am not a masochist, and my time is limited to 24 hours/day so I do not read anything published by the New York Times. I can only paraphrase here.

Some Tik Tokers were convinced that AP and CNN had “admitted to having prior knowledge of Hamas’s October 7 attacks.” Of course, most folks reacted with skepticism to this claim. After all, what are the chances of CNN ever admitting to wrongdoing unless forced to do so in a court of law? The only “evidence” provided by the claimants is that CNN and AP had pictures from the attacks very quickly. We must consider that in 2023, news imagery moves more quickly than it did when Mathew Brady was photographing the US Civil War in the early 1860s, or when the US media was daily misreporting on the US-Vietnam War from 1955 to 1975. Technology changes. Gullibility indexes seem to remain stable.

**IDF Soldiers Preparing for Ground Activity in Gaza, Oct. 29, 2023.**
**Image by IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, public domain**

What Took So Long?

Many observers of this chapter of Hamas’s terror activity are also asking why did it take so long for the Israeli government to respond once the attacks started?

This leaves us with general questions of how and why did Israel not act in time to prevent the attack, and specific questions about the nature of Israel’s response. It also leaves us with more specific questions concerning various details of the current battles between Hamas and Israel. There are multiple factors that contributed to Israel’s failure to act in time to prevent Hamas’s October 7 attacks.

Basic Strategic Realities

Israel has a population of 8.9 million people. By comparison, NYC has a population of 8.3 million people. The Israeli Defense Forces normally have 175,000 active duty personnel and 465,000 reserve personnel. Israel has a large military for its overall population, but the majority of that military is in reserve status.

**Deployment of IDF on Oct 7**
**Image IDF Spokesperson’s Unit**
**Public domain**

While Israel’s reservists are expected to respond quickly to a call up, those same reservists occupy important positions across Israel’s economy. When the Israeli government calls up significant members of their military reserve, the primary cost of doing so is not the direct military cost of paying, supplying, transporting and feeding those reservists. That’s the secondary cost. The primary and much greater cost is the loss of those workers from the Israeli economy.

Israel must maintain a strong economy in order to sustain both its well-trained and well-equipped active duty forces and its reserve forces. Any slowdown of the Israeli economy is a hit to Israel and a victory for Israel’s many enemies across the Mideast, Central Asia, and Africa so Israel must be precise in call up decisions in order to support its long term survival. Therefore, Israel must think clearly and cautiously when considering reserve call-ups.

**IDF Troops in Gaza Strip**
**Oct. 31, 2023**
**Image by IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, public domain**

We currently estimate that Israel has called up approximately 330,000 reservists. In the US, a call-up of that many Reservists and Guard members would generate a noticeable difference in defense expenditures and a measurable impact on the US economy. In Israel, the economic impacts are huge.

The cost of having so many reservists activated is one major reason why we have seen a major escalation in the Israeli counter-terror operations in Gaza over the last few days. Hamas knows the clock is ticking, and Israel must make good use of the called-up reservists in a timely fashion. This explains Hamas’s foot dragging with prisoner exchanges. Any cease fire is to Hamas’s advantage.

Factionalism

**Secy of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on October 12, 2023.**
**State Department photo by Chuck Kennedy, Public Domain**

Here in the US, it would be difficult to envision a government without factional divides. Israel, which has the only democracy in the Middle East, experiences a similar political reality in its relationships with its military.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considered by some members of his government and military leadership to be “too nationalist” or “too right wing.” At the same time, many Israelis consider Netanyahu’s detractors to be “too idealistic” or “too gullible” in dealing with Hamas and other terrorist jihad groups. As a result, this factionalism contributed to Israel not recognizing and coming to a consensus concerning the brewing trouble from Hamas and Hezbollah.

Until leaders agree on what the threat is, they can’t activate an effective response. Israeli political and military leaders have since, for the moment, set aside their differences and are acting with more sense of urgency in dealing with Hamas. How far Israel will go in crushing Hamas remains a matter of debate in Israel.

Experience Impacts Response

Experience effects both how and when senior military leaders and politicians respond to the intelligence information presented to them. Israel receives disturbing intelligence reports concerning Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and the Iranian-controlled Houthis in Yemen on an almost daily basis. These reports are usually paralleled by hate-filled pronouncements about the pending destruction of Israel. They predict the normal, daily low-scale provocations by Hamas and other various jihad groups in and surrounding Israel.

**IDF Meeting with Chief of the General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi,** **Oct. 31, 2023.**
**Image by IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, public domain**

If an Israeli Army general or an Israeli politician went more than two days without such reports from Israeli intelligence services, he or she would be deeply troubled by the eerie silence. They would be quite convinced that Israel’s mortal enemies were hiding something lethal. Warnings of attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah and vitriol from Israel’s enemies are the daily breakfast of every Israeli politician and military officer.

I remember when I would finally beat the snot out of a nasty bully in middle school or high school. As the bully and his useless adoring pals retreated, the bully would usually turn back around for a parting verbal shot. He would, between tears, yell an angry warning that his big brother was going to kill me. The first time this happened, I was cautious and carried a better weapon or two for a while. Eventually, I realized that the little bastard either had no big brother, or his big brother had no more love for the bully than I and my friends did. Over time, I adjusted my defense posture and readiness downward.

Israel has often found itself in an equivalent predicament with Hamas and its Iranian big brother. If Israel reacted strongly to each warning, its economy would eventually collapse.

Even Iron-Age thinkers like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran were able to eventually understand this Israeli strategic limitation and use it against them. The Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian hysteria broadcasters had the volume turned up high for well over a year leading up to the October 7 attacks. I hate using the word “smart” in the same sentence with “Hamas” or “Iran,” but it was, indeed, a smart change in tactics on their part. This contributed to Israel’s “intelligence failure.”

The System Was Working

**Image by IDF Spokesperson’s Unit**
**Oct. 30, 2023**
**Public domain**

Successful tactics, strategies and systems lead to confidence in those same tactics, strategies, and systems. In the past, Israeli observation posts, along with Israel’s advanced and refined air defense systems, have allowed it to wait for Hamas attacks to materialize before reacting. Over the last decade, Israel has become quite adept at the wait-for-direct-confirmation method of strategic response. Israel uses the constant flow of intelligence to refine its preparedness and positioning of ready active forces and supplies and for executing preemptive air strikes against valuable Hamas targets in Gaza.

When a few dozen or so rockets would come flying out of Gaza, Israeli air defenses were usually able to shoot most of them down. Israel would usually then respond to the limited casualties and property damage sustained with surgical air strikes by fighters or attack helicopters or limited artillery barrages. Until October 7, this system worked well.

Hamas Leveled Up

**Screen Grab from Hamas Video of**
**Oct. 7 Terrorist Attack on Israel**

Hamas and its jihadi allies in the West Bank and beyond changed their tactics and strategies. In addition to changes in the pattern of disinformation and propaganda broadcast by Hamas and Hezbollah, those groups changed their ground and missile tactics in both style and scope. Hamas had never before husbanded, by its claim, “5,000 missiles and rockets” (Israel claims it was 2,500), for use in a narrow period of time.

The massive use of rockets and missiles has left Israel’s previously effective air defenses somewhat saturated. In earlier Hamas rocket and missile attacks, the Israeli air defenses, while never perfect, were robust enough to minimize the impact of the attacks. In this instance, the fact that Israel did not predict and significantly prevent the scale of Hamas’s massive rocket and missile attacks magnifies the consequence of any intelligence failures by Israel.

In other changes, Hamas flew over the border with para gliders. It more skillfully breached the fortified the border between Israel and Gaza at multiple locations in larger than usual numbers. It had multiple objectives. As a result, Hamas succeeded in overwhelming the border defenses long enough to inflict casualties and kidnappings on a scale not previously imagined by Israel or Western observers.

This larger scale of attack and new tactics included using drones to attack cell phone towers. Israel had been relying on cell phone communications with its observation towers to receive alerts of any Hamas ground activity along the border. Hamas also used well-trained and well-equipped snipers to attack Israeli personnel in and near the towers. The combination of these two tactics delayed Israel’s initial military reaction to the terrorists’s incursion into Israel. This allowed Hamas terrorists time to systematically murder over 1,400 people and kidnap at least 248 hostages.

Those are, in my opinion, the major factors that led to a failure in Israel’s intelligence systems and the government’s failure to respond to the intelligence that was offered to them.

In our next installment we will consider the likely causes of possible failures in Hamas’s intelligence efforts leading up to their October 7 terrorist attacks.

What’s Happened So Far: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part One

Hamas’s Internal Influences: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Three

Where Hamas’s Neighbors Stand: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Four

What’s Happened So Far: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part One

Jan9

Bayard & Holmes

~ Jay Holmes

On the morning of October 7, Hamas launched an unbridled terrorist attack on Israel from Gaza, in which Hamas terrorists brutally slaughtered 1400 Israelis and foreigners and kidnapped 248 more. By 0800 Israeli time, many folks around the globe were asking how Israel had been caught by surprise, and how had the Israeli Defense Force (“IDF”) only confirmed the attack at 0740. In Part Two, we suggest some possible answers for these two important questions, and in Part Three, we will look at the motives and miscalculations on the part of Hamas. To facilitate a discussion on the intelligence issues and to define the questions surrounding the current chapter of the Hamas-Israel War, we first need to look at what has happened up to this point. This Part One is an extremely brief overview of the ongoing conflict from October 7 to December 4.

October 7, 2023

At approximately 0630 local time, Hamas started launching missiles into Israel. Hamas launching missiles into Israel is, sadly, a fairly routine matter, but on this occasion, it sent thousands of missiles of various sizes and ranges against Israel. Israel estimated that Hamas launched about 2,500 missiles during the first days of this war. Hamas claims it launched 5,000 missiles.

As missiles began to rain down on Israel, Hamas terror commander Mohammed Deif broadcast a message on the internet calling for everyone in Gaza to attack Israeli towns and villages. His broadcast included the words “The enemy will understand that the time of their rampaging without accountability has ended,…”

At 0700 a music festival near Re’im Kibbutz, a secular collective farm, was getting underway when Hamas terrorists arrived on the scene on para-gliders and motorcycles and in trucks and began a raping, torturing, and killing spree. The bodies of 364 murdered civilians were recovered from the site of the music festival. The terrorists kidnapped some festival goers and took them into Gaza when they retreated from their invasion into Israel. We do not know how many hostages Hamas took from the music festival that day. The estimates vary widely, but the low estimate is “over forty.” The high estimates are “over one hundred.”

**Bloody aftermath of Hamas terrorist attack in Israeli home. Image by photographer with Spokesperson Unit of ZAKA Search & Rescue,** **public domain.**

While the Hamas’s terror attack on the music festival was the largest incursion, Hamas also simultaneously conducted raids against six villages in southern Israel.

It was not until 0740 that the IDF announced that Israel was, indeed, under a major attack by Hamas terrorists.

At 0823, Israel declared that it was at war with Hamas and made its first call up of military reservists. In reality, Israel has been at war with Hamas since Hamas declared war against Israel when Hamas was first founded in 1987.

Hamas was, in fact, created for the sole purpose of the destruction of Israel. For reasons one can only guess at, many Westerners, including journalists, university professors, and various politicians, hold a variety of fascinating and at times colorful views concerning Hamas’s reason for existing. Some assume or claim to think that Hamas is “fighting for the freedom of Gaza” or “fighting to overthrow Israeli oppression in Gaza.”

**Known Hamas targets being hit by Israeli missiles, Oct. 7.**
**Image from Wikimedia Commons by Tasnim News Agency, CCA 4.0.**

For its part, Hamas has been clear and consistent about its intentions to annihilate Israel, and it was helpful enough to clarify that by writing it into its charter.

At 0834, the Israeli government announced that it had begun a counteroffensive against the Hamas terrorists.

At 1047, Israeli aircraft began bombing known Hamas targets in Gaza, such as missile launching sites and Hamas offices and residences.

October 8, 2023

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III ordered the US Navy to deploy the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean. It is unlikely that the order was given with the intention of having the strike group conduct any operations against Hamas, but rather, in my opinion, as a precaution against Iran and Syria conducting major attacks on Israel by way of Lebanon.

October 9, 2023

By this time, Israel was realizing that over 1400 Israelis and foreigners had been slaughtered by Hamas during its initial onslaught, and that Hamas had kidnapped 248 Israelis and foreign visitors to Israel, including those taken at the music festival.

Israel announced a total land, sea, and air blockade of Gaza, including fuel and food. Egypt and Israel had both already closed their respective border crossings with Gaza.

October 10, 2023

The US Air Force delivered unspecified “advanced weapons” to Israel.

President Biden stated that, “Hamas does not stand for the Palestinian people’s right to dignity and self-determination. Its stated purpose is the annihilation of the State of Israel and the murder of Jewish people.” The President described this latest Hamas attack as “an act of sheer evil.”

October 11, 2023

Iranian-sponsored terrorists Hezbollah launched missile attacks against Israel from Lebanon.

October 12, 2023

More US military equipment arrived at Nevatim Airbase, which is east of Be’er Shiva in Israel.

Iranian-backed Syria launched mortar attacks on Israel. Israel responded with artillery strikes and bombing raids on the Damascus and Aleppo airports in Syria. In spite of heavy Syrian air defenses at both locations, no Israeli aircraft were damaged.

October 13, 2023

Israel issued a warning that combat operations against northern Gaza would begin the next day, and Gazans began fleeing southward. Hamas ordered those Gazans in the northern region to remain in place.

October 14, 2023

**USS *Carney* engages Houthi missiles & unmanned aerial vehicles in the Red Sea on Oct 19, 2023.** **U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Aaron Lau, public domain.**

Israel and Egypt agreed to open the Rafah crossing from Gaza to Egypt from 1200 to 1700 for foreign nationals to leave Gaza.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian stated, “Iran will intervene in the war if Israel continues its military operations or launches a ground invasion against Gaza.”

Given that Iran has already been supporting Hamas’s and Hezbollah’s terror activities against Israel with money and weapons since 1987, it was difficult to know what degree of further intervention Iran was threatening. To date, Iranian escalation has come through its Houthi client terrorists in Yemen in the form of missiles launched toward Israel and against ships in the region. The Houthis also attempted to capture a cargo ship.

October 21, 2023

Protests broke out in the West Bank in support of Gaza. Protesters were filmed flying the flags of Fatah and Russia and holding portraits of Russian Dictator Putin and his pal, North Korean Dictator Kim 3.0. . . . Thanks for the clarity.

US Secretary of Defense Austin ordered the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and her escorts to join the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Eastern Mediterranean.

**Ships from USS *Gerald R. Ford* and USS *Dwight D. Eisenhower* Carrier Strike Groups,**
**USS *Mount Whitney*, and Italian Navy Frigates *Carlo Margottini* and *Virginio Fasan*.**
**U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communications Specialist 3rd Class Janae Chambers, public domain.**

October 28, 2023

Israel launched a ground invasion into Gaza with the announced intention of hunting down Hamas members.

October 31, 2023

The Al-Quds Brigades of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Al Aqsa Martyrs, a coalition of armed Palestinian groups in the West Bank, launched an assault on the IDF in the West Bank.

November 1 – 21, 2023

Israeli ground operations in Gaza intensified. Hamas claimed that 15,000 Palestinians, mostly civilian, had been killed thus far. Israel estimates lower casualties.

Egyptians stopped dozens of Hamas terrorists when they tried to sneak out of Gaza at the Rafah crossing in ambulances that had been intended for wounded Gaza civilians.

At this point, many people around the world were wondering how Hamas could have failed to predict the scope and intensity of the Israeli response.

November 22, 2023

Israel and Hamas agreed to a four-day cease fire for the exchange of prisoners and hostages.

November 24, 2023

At 0700 local time, a cease fire began. Twenty-four hostages, including 13 Israelis, 10 Thai nationals, and one Filipino, were exchanged by Hamas for 39 Palestinian prisoners.

In the Indian Ocean, a drone damaged the Malta-flagged container ship Symi, which is indirectly owned by Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer. The drone was likely controlled by Iran.

November 25, 2023

Hamas released 13 Israeli hostages and four Thai nationals. Israel released 39 Palestinian prisoners.

Never one to miss an opportunity to be absurd, Turkish “President” Erdogan said in a speech that, “Hamas is not a terrorist organization, but a mujaheddin liberation group struggling to protect its people and lands.” Apparently, Erdogan refuses to accept Hamas’s own stated purpose.

November 26, 2023

In an extension of the truce, 17 hostages, including 14 Israelis and three Thai nationals, were released by Hamas. Israel released 39 teenage Palestinian prisoners.

**JS *Akebono* and USS *Mason*, Nov. 25, 2023.**
**Image by Govt. of Japan, CCL 4.0 International.**

Pirates seized the Central Park, a Liberia-flagged ship carrying phosphoric acid owned by the Ofer family of Israel, in the Gulf of Aden. The guided missile destroyer USS Mason and a Japanese destroyer answered the Central Park’s distress call and captured the five hijackers.

Two ballistic missiles fired towards the USS Mason from Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory fell short 10 nautical miles. Interestingly, the Houthis are now denying any involvement.

November 27, 2023

Israel and Hamas agreed to extend the cease fire by two days. Hamas released eleven Israeli hostages while Israel released 33 Palestinian prisoners.

November 28, 2023

Ten Israeli hostages and a pet dog, two Thai nationals, and 30 Palestinian prisoners were exchanged.

November 29, 2023

Hamas released 16 hostages, and Israel released 30 Palestinian prisoners in return.

November 30, 2023

During another cease fire extension, which had been requested by Hamas, two gunmen killed three people and injured 16 others at a bus stop in West Jerusalem. The perpetrators, who were brothers from East Jerusalem, were killed by off-duty police officers. Hamas claimed responsibility.

The attack calls into question Hamas’s ability to control its own members. In spite of the blatant cease fire violation by Hamas, Hamas released eight hostages in exchange for 30 Palestinian prisoners.

December 1, 2023

With the conclusion of the cease fire, Israel returned to the offensive in Gaza. At the same time, the Israeli Army responded to attacks by Palestinian fighters in five towns in the West Bank.

December 3, 2023

Israel announced expanded ground operations into all of central and southern Gaza. Shin Bet Security Service Director Ronen Bar announced that Israel has set the goal of the elimination of Hamas. In reference to the 1972 Palestinian Liberation Organization terrorist attack on Israeli athletes at the Summer Olympics in Munich, Bar said, “This is our Munich. Everywhere in Gaza, in the Palestinian territories, in Lebanon, in Turkey, and in Qatar. It will take us a few years, but we will be there to do it.” Including Turkey in the statement was a clear message to Turkish Dictator Erdogan.

As of December 4, 2023

We are left with several questions concerning the Israeli intelligence failures in the current chapter of the Hamas-Israeli war, as well as observations of the motives and miscalculations of Hamas.

In our next articles, we will explore those questions, motives, and miscalculations.

Israel’s Constraints and Failures: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Two

Hamas’s Internal Influences: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Three

Where Hamas’s Neighbors Stand: Intelligence Perspective on the Israel-Hamas War, Part Four

Timeline Oman–What Comes After Sultan Qaboos?

Jan15

Bayard & Holmes

~ Jay Holmes

January 10, 2020 marks the passing of Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said, the man who led Oman, the “other” Arabic country, for the past fifty years. We say the “other” Arabic country because by the standards of the region, Oman is a peaceful and happy place to live, which is something we can seldom say about that oil-rich corner of the world we call the Middle East. To understand a little about why Oman is not living up to the standards of mayhem and human suffering that most observers take for granted in that part of the world, it’s worth taking a glance at Oman’s history. We’ll do that with a timeline.

Image by CIA, public domain

OMAN HISTORICAL TIMELINE

6000 BC

Fire pit evidence indicates that people have arrived in Oman and stayed long enough to make a fire and eat a meal.

5000 BC

Non-nomads build fishing villages on the coast of Oman.

4500 BC

Pottery is produced in Oman.

2500 BC

Omani miners smelt copper, and Omani merchants set up trade with Mesopotamian trade ships. Copper is worth stealing, so concurrent with copper production and trade, large fortress construction starts in Oman to protect both mining and coastal areas.

2500 BC – 1300 BC

Oman continues to export copper and increases its boat making and seafaring skills as its neighbors evolve imperial domains such as Samaria and Ur. The increased sea trade to and from the Arabian Gulf benefits Oman.

1300 BC

Oman enters its iron age. Trade and wealth increase at a slow, but consistent rate.

1000 BC

Oman builds extensive irrigation ditches and, in doing so, becomes more “urban” as villages are able to support higher populations and develop more specialized skills. The irrigation technology may have been obtained from Persian immigrants. Oman begins to produce incense in commercial quantities for export.

300 BC

Wealth continues to accumulate in Oman. A classical period begins and sees an increase in commerce and art.

150 BC

Triliths are produced with inscriptions that remain undeciphered. The three stone structures are built in the interior of Oman in the frankincense-producing areas.

700 AD

Sultan Qaboos Mosque, Moscat, Oman
Image from CanstockPhotos

Bedouin Arabs enter Oman in greater number and bring Islam. Omani scholar Abu al-Sha’tha Jabir ibn Zayd al-Zahrani al-Azdi develops a moderate form of Islam known as “Ibadiyah,” which remains popular in Oman today. The Ibadi Muslims decide that while the Imam enjoys a high degree of control over the people, the people may vote to elect the Imam of their choice. The followers are entitled to impeach an Imam any time they decide to by simply voting to impeach him.

This is a notion that remains repulsive to modern-day Wahabis in Saudi Arabia, Shia junta members in Iran, Taliban thugs in Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda and ISIS leaders, and despots of any flavor throughout the world.

This great scholar died in 711 AD, but his birth date is unknown. Thank you Jabir ibn Zayd al-Azid. Your influence is still felt today in Oman and in the Gulf. R.I.P.

1500 AD

Portugal becomes interested in the Gulf region and seeks to control trade throughout the area. Portugal uses amphibious tactics to attack, sack, and occasionally capture various ports in southern Arabia and in eastern Africa.

1508 AD

Afonso d’Albuquerque conquers the critical port city of Muscat on the coast of Oman.

1518 AD

In a well-executed campaign, Afonso captures Hormuz and throttles non-Portuguese trade through the Gulf of Arabia.

1650 AD

The Iberian Empire is busy throughout the world and is unable to reinforce Portuguese forces in Oman. The Portuguese are evicted, but they do not all leave. Many Omanis had established cordial relations with the Portuguese, and some of their descendants remain today as a distinct ethnic group in Oman. They are allowed to practice Christianity unmolested by the Islamic majority.

1700 AD

The Omani Sultanate is powerful enough to extend its reach and build a large fort on the island of Zanzibar off the coast of Tanzania in East Africa. Oman becomes a major slave trading area.

Oman builds two distinct cultures. The inland Omanis are more conservative and isolationist, but continue to practice moderate Islam. The coastal Omanis develop a more international view and a more international culture. The differences in culture cause strife at times.

Oman gains a three hundred square mile colony in the Gwadar Peninsula in what is now modern day Pakistan. Gwadar prospers due to pearl diving and a particularly lucrative slave trade that sends Persian and Central Asian women to Arabia for high prices.

1815 AD

When Britain tires of Wahabi Arab pirates taking British East India Company ships, Oman and Egypt side with the British and conduct a successful campaign against the Wahabi pirates.

1834 AD

Oman has strong, friendly ties with the United States of America as well as Great Britain. President Andrew Jackson has special silver dollars minted for the Sultan of Oman.

1840 AD

The Sultan of Oman moves his seat of government to Old Fort in Zanzibar.

During the remainder of the 19th century, questions of dynastic succession and competition between Imams in the interior of Oman keep Oman busy and detract from trade profits.

1907 AD

Great Britain heavily influences Omani politics and forces Oman to end the practice of slavery. In the early decades of the 1900s, the more conservative interior Omanis gain a degree of autonomy from the less conservative government of Oman.

1954 AD

A new Imam comes to power in the interior of Oman and attempts to reject the central control of the Omani government. With the help of the British, Oman’s central government defeats the Imam in 1957.

In particular, the British Special Air Service made tremendous contributions in dealing with the rebels in the dry mountains of the interior. The Saudi government had clandestinely supported the rebels and continued to do so after their defeat. The Saudis and other Arab states did not abandon the unprofitable effort until the 1980s. Oman will likely not forget the Saudi support for the Islamic rebels for a long time.

1964 AD

Soviet-backed rebels operating out of South Yemen attempt to generate a communist rebellion in Oman. The communist rebels prove to be more adept at controlling their Soviet controllers than the controllers are at controlling their insurgents. The rebellion eventually dies in 1975.

1965 AD

Oil is discovered in Oman.

1967 AD

Oil production begins in Oman.

Sultan Qaboos of Oman, May 21, 2013
Image US State Dept., public domain

1970 AD

Qaboos bin Said Al Said conducts a bloodless coup against his father, Sultan Said bin Taimur.

Qaboos was educated in India and England. He was a graduate of Sandhurst Military Academy and, unlike Moammar Gadhafi, the Academy staff remembers Qaboos attending and graduating. Qaboos served in the British Army in a Scottish regiment and was posted to Germany for a year. After leaving the British Army, he continued his studies in England and traveled widely.

Qaboos introduces liberal reforms and forms a council to be elected by business leaders and prominent citizens.

1979 AD

Oman is the only government of an Islamic-majority nation that recognizes Anwar Sadat’s peace treaty with Israel.

1984 AD

Oman joins the new Gulf Cooperation Council, along with the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. The forming of the council is symbolic of the Gulf States deciding to bury their differences in favor of a united defense against Iranian military threats.

1986 AD

Oman’s first university opens. Emphasis is placed on science and on training teachers and nurses.

1990 AD

Sultan Qaboos announces a modern constitution which includes basic human rights for its citizens.

1996 AD

A census of Oman indicates a population of about two million.

2000 AD

Approximately 100,000 Omanis are allowed to participate in the selection of an 83-member council that will act as a “lower house” in a bicameral central government. Two women are elected. The Sultan selects the 48-member “upper house” and includes five women in the council.

2005 AD

An Omani court convicts thirty-one Islamic radicals of attempting a coup.

2012 AD

The history of Oman has resulted in a country that, while surrounded by anti-democratic governments and xenophobic cultures, has remained open to outsiders. Oman keeps cordial communications with Iran, and when Western governments wish to speak to the Iranian religious junta, they often do so through Omani diplomats. Western travelers have rarely encountered trouble in Oman. Islamic radicals are a small, shrinking minority and are not well-tolerated by the majority of the people or by the government. Oman makes no effort to stop anyone from practicing any religion. The minority Hindus and Catholics mix socially and professionally with their Islamic neighbors with no sign of segregation or hostilities. Neither the government nor the people of Oman have any interest in Islamic radicalism or any other fad in despotism.

At this point, Oman is a country trying to survive its radical neighbors while preparing itself for the loss of oil revenues that will occur in this decade. It is diversifying its economy. A major natural gas processing plant and port facility is being constructed with the help of British and American engineers. Since Sultan Qaboos came to power, education has grown rapidly, and literacy is at eighty-two percent and rising. Compared to Detroit and many other cities in the United States, these folks are Ivy League elitists.

Under Sultan Qaboos, Oman still had problems with unemployment, but protests were small, involving less than two hundred protesters. On one occasion, at least one protester was killed by a rubber bullet that struck him in the head. Qaboos responded by agreeing to more reforms and more jobs. The protesters in Oman under Qaboos were too few in number, and they did not appear to have any popular support.

March 2013 AD

Sultan Qaboos announced pardons for thirty-two anti-government protestor organizers and activists who had been convicted in 2012.

May 19, 2014 AD

In a landmark case, Oman’s former commerce minister Muhammad bin Nasir Al-Khusaibi was convicted of corruption. He was sentenced to three years in prison and a one million dollar fine for receiving bribes for construction work on the new Muscat International Airport. Former Omani Undersecretary for Transport and Communication Mohammed Al-Amri was also convicted of corruption concerning the same airport construction fiasco. He was sentenced to prison for three years and fined $3.1 million. For government officials anywhere in the Arabian peninsula to be held accountable for corruption is highly unusual and a hopeful sign for Oman’s future.

August 10, 2016 AD

Three journalists of the private Omani national newspaper Azaman were arrested for publishing an article alleging inappropriate government pressure on judges. The government claimed that the allegations were false and slanderous. Critics saw it as evidence that Oman lacks anything approaching free speech for journalism. Government supporters claimed that the newspaper was engaged in anti-government propaganda on behalf of foreigners. The Western media ignored the case.

June 2017 AD

In the midst of Qatar’s continuing political conflict with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, Oman allowed Qatar to use Omani ports to transfer cargo, thus bypassing sea, land, and air transport restrictions imposed on Qatar by its neighboring Gulf States.

October 5, 2017

The Omani Supreme Court ruled against the Azaman newspaper and ordered it permanently closed.

October 25, 2017 AD

New members of the consultative Majlis Ash’shura were elected. Several women campaigned for office, but only one woman was selected.

2019 AD

The government of Oman spoke openly about financial problems caused by the continued low oil prices. Oman’s credit ratings declined.

January 10, 2020 AD

Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said passed away. Sultan Qaboos’s cousin Haitham bin Tariq Al Said was sworn in as the new Sultan of Oman.

January 11, 2020 AD

In his first address to Oman, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq announced that he intended to continue with Oman’s long tradition of peaceful and moderate foreign policy, and that he intends to develop new economic programs to help Oman out of its current economic difficulties. Tariq is Oxford educated and has a reputation for being moderate, honest, and exceptionally intelligent. He has two decades of experience in quiet diplomacy on behalf of Sultan Qaboos and is well respected by foreign policy experts around the world.

Sultan Haitham bin Tariq faces great challenges.

On Oman’s southwestern border, Iranian-backed terrorists are fighting a brutally violent war with a weak Saudi-backed Yemeni government. On their northwestern border, Oman’s neighbors in the United Arab Emirates are facing new internal opposition. Twenty miles from Oman’s northern-most islands, the radical Iranian government continues to support terror groups across the region. Tariq will have to continue to skillfully handle Oman’s foreign policy while improving Oman’s economy. For the moment, he has wide support from Omanis.

Tariq also has one very important ace up his sleeve.

Oman has a new and vast refinery and port facility at Duqm on the Indian Ocean. The port facilities are continuing to grow, and China and several Western logistics companies have signed agreements with Oman for access to the new port. The Duqm port is quite valuable, as it will allow China and Western countries to access Gulf oil and natural gas supplies without having to venture near Iran’s coast or pass through the Straits of Hormuz. At the same time, dry goods from the West can be offloaded in Duqm and continue overland to the Gulf States. Duqm is a rare instance where China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, the United States, and Europe all find themselves on the same side of an important development. While the United States is currently a net oil exporter, any development that reduces Iran’s ability to threaten the world’s oil trade is good news.

The sooner the massive new Duqm port can increase its cargo traffic, the sooner Tariq will be able to stabilize Oman’s economy. Holmes’s best guess is that Sultan Tariq will succeed in improving Oman’s economy and will keep Oman independent and moderate.

*** * * * * * * * * * * * ***

Now on pre-sale!

SPYCRAFT: The Good, the Bad, & the Booty, Key Figures in Espionage

Hollywood has yet to produce either heroes or villains that can match the heights and depths of humanity. Who is more courageous than a one-legged woman, “the most dangerous spy in all of France,” operating in Nazi-occupied territory? Who is more extraordinary than a young man left for dead, not worth a Viet Cong bullet, who survives to hunt down terrorists for six more decades? Who is more heroic than a homeless child living in a cardboard box who grows up to be an iconic showgirl, an espionage legend, and a tireless humanitarian? And what villain is more malevolent than the traitor that lurks in our midst, walking our halls and eating at our tables, while helping our enemies murder our own and butcher thousands of innocents?

Join us as we explore the lives of these espionage elites and others who prove that “we’re only human” is not an excuse to fail, but a reason to succeed.

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Misbehaving Relatives? Spanking Santa to the Rescue!

Dec20

Bayard & Holmes

~ Piper Bayard & Jay Holmes

The most stressful time of the year is upon us. Long lines, visiting relatives, and credit card bills that give bankers a warm, fuzzy feeling in their wallets. But fear not! Bayard & Holmes Holiday Survival is here to help you navigate this cauldron of tension without beating anyone bloody with a turkey leg.

A spook and a belly dancer. Not us. Image from The Man with the Golden Gun.

We, a pragmatic author/belly dancer and a spook who solves most of life’s problems with sex, C4, or hollow points, are clearing our schedules so that we can assist you with your holiday survival questions. In fact, we’ve had a few pleas for assistance already.

Sarah Broogenstegler in Research Pod 3, Antarctica, sent us this desperate missive.

Dear Bayard & Holmes:

My husband, Clyde, and I love the Holidays. Unfortunately, six years ago, after a ten-year stint in Joliet Prison for a Ponzi scheme that bankrupted twelve hospitals, Clyde’s Uncle Harry started showing up uninvited on Christmas Day. We tried to be charitable the first year, but he drank all of our alcohol and mouthwash and fell in the punch bowl. It splashed on the Christmas lights and shorted them out. The ensuing fire nearly burned down the house.

Clyde is a pacifist and made me sell my .45 Colt automatic years ago. Rather than reintroduce firearms into our lifestyle to deal with Uncle Harry, we relocated to Antarctica. Last week, though, we got a radio message that Harry had somehow acquired our GPS coordinates and was hitching a ride with Greenpeace activists to get down here for Christmas.

I’m in tears! Please help!

Bayard & Holmes:

Dry your eyes, Sarah. We’re sending a bottle of Spanish sherry and our Little Holiday Helper to you at this very moment.

While the rest of the nation wasted summer days fretting over politics or battling squash bugs in their gardens, our talented staff here at Bayard & Holmes created a tactical solution to the Uncle Harrys of the world. Today, we proudly unveil the new Bayard & Holmes Spanking Santa* and His Band of Merry Elves.

Spanking Santa and his Band are hand-picked, highly trained Allied combat veterans whose specialty is conflict resolution, and they are here to serve you. When Harry rings the doorbell on Research Pod 3, our Spanking Santa Team will arrive moments later, fully armed with state-of-the art wooden paddles and ready to give Harry the Over-the-Knee Session of his life.

Image from Dept. of Defense

Yes, yes, we know . . . Harry was unarmed and you did let him in voluntarily. Not a problem! Santa’s Merry Elves are experienced federal witnesses. Once they’ve entertained the Judge with their sworn testimony as to how Harry threatened your lives—they heard it themselves—Harry will be carted off to spend the Holidays visiting his old friends in Joliet Prison.

It’s win/win for everyone. Harry finally gets the stable family life that he has always craved, and you get to laugh all night about how Santa “took him to the woodshed” like he’s always deserved.

On the same line, Charlie from the Shetland Islands asks . . .

What about my brother, Filbert? He loves being spanked and often pays pricey women in London to do that for him. Wouldn’t a visit from Spanking Santa just make him show up more often?”

Bayard & Holmes:

An excellent question, Charlie. Our Spanking Santa Teams are well trained to spot any “patients” who might be enjoying the medicine a little bit too much. For those tough cases, our Spanking Santa Teams are authorized and prepared to administer electroshock therapy. Let us know if Filbert likes that too much, too, and we’ll recruit him as a test subject at our laboratories.

Then there was this slightly awkward question from “Kelly” with no last name or return address . . .

Hey, can you send Santa over to spank me?

Bayard & Holmes:

Well, Kelly, we don’t know if you are male or female or some combination thereof, but we’re afraid that if you’ve been well-behaved and simply enjoy this sort of thing, you’ll have to convince your significant other to take care of that. We hope you have fun and remember to play safe. Use a Nerf paddle. We have some at a great low price.

What survival issues are you struggling with this Holiday season? Remember. No question is out-of-bounds, but some of our answers might be!

*Spanking Santa Teams come fully equipped for all contingencies. Video cameras and DVD copies sold separately.

The Troubling Case of Eddie Gallagher

Dec12

Bayard & Holmes

~ Jay Holmes

US Navy SEAL Trident
Image public domain

Effective November 30, 2019, Seal Team Seven member Chief Special Warfare Operator Eddie Gallagher retired from the US Navy after twenty years of service. Though Gallagher remains on Fleet Reserve status, it is highly unlikely that he will ever return to active duty. His career is over, but the impacts of his career will continue to reverberate through the US Navy, as well as the entire US military establishment. It would do the nation well for Gallagher’s career to reverberate through the broader US society, but it will likely soon be forgotten by the public.

Gallagher joined the US Navy in 1999. During his twenty years of service, he completed eight combat deployments that I know of. I write “that I know of” because SEAL teams often deploy on short-term missions that are not made public. However, at a minimum, we know that Gallagher completed eight documented tours of combat duty.

Many US Navy SEALs retire each year without their names ever being uttered by a media outlet. Young men enlist. Some volunteer for SEAL selection. Comparatively few complete the training. Those few then continue to train. Then they deploy and fight, and they either die or survive. The survivors then train some more, go to war again, etc. Some die or are permanently maimed. The fortunate ones survive this cycle of training and fighting in reasonably good health and retire. Their wives and children try to breathe a sigh of relief and adjust to a new life, but most of the country does not notice.

Gallagher, of course, was not your average US Navy SEAL. In 2018, he was charged with multiple criminal counts, including murder, two counts of attempted murder from two other separate incidents, and multiple counts of intimidating witnesses.

The media and the country took notice. Long before a court-martial could be convened or the details of the actual charges made public, opinions in and out of the military began to form. In many cases, the opinions were, and remain, passionate in the extreme. They range from “Gallagher should be hanged,” to “Gallagher is an American hero.”

Details of the case, along with imagined details of the case, have been thoroughly covered by the media, but there are some salient points worth reviewing.

Gallagher was accused of murdering a wounded, captured ISIS member in Iraq in 2017. He was accused of threatening witnesses who were fellow SEALs and of attempting to orchestrate a “blacklisting” of the witnesses by the SEAL community. He was accused of purposely shooting at civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan. Gallagher also was charged with violating rules by posing for a picture of himself with the freshly-dead prisoner and sending that picture in a text to a friend. Interestingly, Gallagher’s commanding officer, Lieutenant Jacob “Jake” Portier, posed with Gallagher for the picture. That should tell us something about the command culture under which Gallagher was operating.

Did Eddie Gallagher commit some or all of these crimes? I wasn’t there, so I don’t know. There is much about the Gallagher case that we cannot determine with any certainty, as there are conflicting testimonies. What I do know is that he was acquitted by a US Navy court-martial panel of all the charges except for the picture-taking charge.

For the picture-taking charge, Gallagher received the maximum sentence of four months confinement. He was also reduced in rank from E-7 (Chief) to E-6 (Petty Officer First Class). The demotion mattered because it significantly reduced Gallagher’s Navy retirement payments. Since he had already served more than four months of confinement, he was released after his sentencing. On November 15, 2019, President Trump reinstated Gallagher to his rank of Chief Special Warfare Operator.

What I also know about the Gallagher case is that the US Navy overall and the US Navy judicial system in particular did a lousy job handling it. It is now evident that senior members of the judicial system and other senior Navy officers exerted unlawful command influence (“UCI”). Senior Navy officers were angry over “the incident.” Based on their statements, their anger stems from the fact that the Gallagher case was good press for the bad guys and bad press for the good guys. In the modern US military, generating bad press is a serious crime.

One glaring example of what the courts-martial system calls unlawful command influence seems to have been committed by now-retired Navy Judge Advocate Vice Admiral James W. Crawford.

I have not seen any mainstream media coverage concerning Vice Admiral Crawford. As far as I am able to determine at this point, Crawford’s interference in Gallagher’s case has not been investigated, but it was recognized by the court-martial panel. In a completely unrelated, but equally serious case, Crawford was found by a military appellate court to have committed UCI. Some members of the judicial system recommended that the US Navy delay Crawford’s retirement so that he could be prosecuted for that instance of UCI. The Navy chose to allow Crawford to retire without any further investigation. I mention Crawford’s demonstrable instance of UCI because it proves that he was, in fact, willing to commit UCI.

Other misconduct by the prosecution included interfering with Gallagher’s access to his attorney and not calling credible witnesses who were offering exculpatory testimony in Gallagher’s favor. In one instance, an Iraqi General was not allowed to testify on Gallagher’s behalf. The defense also alleges that a video showing the prisoner severely wounded and near death when he was brought into camp was taken into evidence and vanished while in the possession of the prosecution. The Navy also botched the case by waiting too long to investigate the charges.

Some of the allegations predate the alleged 2017 killing of the wounded prisoner. Gallagher’s command failed to escalate the case to the Navy judicial system. The case did not reach the Navy judicial system until after witnesses went outside of SEAL Team Seven’s chain of command. That aspect of the badly-handled case can’t be blamed on the judicial system. The delay of any investigation must be blamed on Gallagher’s chain of command.

In the US Navy, murder is a serious crime, but for many senior Navy officers, embarrassing the US Navy is a far more serious offense.

Senior Navy officers feel responsible for the well being of the US Navy and the reputation of a Navy that most of them genuinely love and honorably devote their lives to. Unfortunately, that love that they feel for their Navy can lead them at times to ignore allegations of misconduct. In other instances, they may act over zealously in the prosecution of anyone who they feel tarnishes the image of the US Navy.

This is not a uniquely American phenomenon.

The UK military is currently being accused of massive cover-ups of various war crimes by UK soldiers and Marines. Similar accusations have surfaced in France and Italy in recent years. The nature of those accusations would be a topic for another day, but we should recognize the universal nature of these issues. How an individual country responds to allegations of war crimes depends on the country. In many countries, they simply don’t matter. In the United Kingdom and the United States, they matter. We would do well as a nation to recognize and remember certain aspects of the Gallagher case. Exerting unlawful command influence is wrong and should no longer be tolerated. It can lead to the conviction of innocents or, when exposed, the exoneration of guilty parties. Neither of those helps our military or our foreign policy agendas.

Another aspect of the Gallagher case which is more difficult to clarify and has been almost completely ignored is the awkward and unwelcome question of Eddie Gallagher’s mental health.

Gallagher served for twenty years. For most of that time, his career was without controversy. When serious allegations about his conduct in combat began to surface 2015, he had already been in the Navy for sixteen years. If Gallagher is, indeed, a dangerous criminal as the Navy judicial system claimed, how did he serve without any serious incidents for sixteen years? How does a man serve effectively and honorably for sixteen years without incidence and then become a dangerous criminal?

We are left with two choices as to what we believe about Gallagher.

The first choice is to accept the court-martial result and assume that he was, indeed, innocent of all the charges except posing for the infamous picture. If that’s the case, then we should all be very worried about the terrible job that the Navy judicial system did with the Eddie Gallagher case. If, on the other hand, we wish to assume that Gallagher did indeed murder the wounded ISIS prisoner and/or previously purposely shoot unarmed civilians, then we need to ask how and why that happened. How does a long-standing, decorated member of the Navy SEALs end up doing such things, if, indeed, he did do them? The answer to that question goes way beyond Eddie Gallagher.

Collectively, as a nation, we are living in denial about some of the consequences of combat.

Combat, especially multiple deployments to war zones over long periods of time, can negatively impact an individual’s decision-making ability. In the case of Gallagher, he was undergoing treatment for brain trauma at the time he was arrested due to at least one concussion that he suffered in combat. Long before that treatment started, the Navy should have paid attention to the allegations that his behavior was radically changing. Chief Special Warfare Operators are a rare and valuable commodity, so it is always extremely tempting for commanders to overlook signs of combat fatigue, PTSD, etc., and return an experienced warrior back to combat rather than send him for effective treatment.

I am not a physician and have not read Gallagher’s medical records, so I cannot be certain that his health played any role in incidents which were alleged to have occurred during his last two deployments. However, this is certain: All branches of the US military have pressured military medical personnel to certify military personnel suffering from PTSD and other serious health disorders as fit for combat.

This issue predates the Gallagher case by many decades. In World War II, commanders routinely pressured military physicians to certify soldiers with serious health issues as “fit for combat.” The same thing occurred on a grand scale in Korea and Vietnam. The root of the problem extends far beyond the US military. Mental health and neurology lag behind the other branches of medicine. Mental and neurological patients remain stigmatized in most societies. No warrior would hesitate to point out to his comrade that he is bleeding or showing other symptoms of injury, unless it is a mental health injury. Then it becomes a very difficult subject.

If, as a country, we wish to continue the practice of ignoring the mental health issues of our fellow citizens who we send to fight our wars for us, then we should expect to hear about more incidents like the Eddie Gallagher case. It has happened before, and it will happen again. Whether or not mental health played a part in the Eddie Gallagher case, we should end the practice of ordering physicians to certify unhealthy warriors as fit for duty. For those who feel no sympathy for Eddie Gallagher and feel that he “got away with murder,” they have the military judicial system to blame for that.

That system investigates and prosecutes thousands of cases each year, ranging from overdrawing a checking account to rape and murder. In my opinion, the military system does a better job than our civilian judicial system in most cases, but when unlawful command influence occurs, justice can quickly be perverted. The Eddie Gallagher case was clearly impacted by judicial misconduct on the part of prosecutors and commanding officers. It may have also been influenced by neurological health issues suffered by Eddie Gallagher which went untreated for too long. Our warriors deserve better, and the entire nation deserves better. We should demand better.

Politicians control our military, and we control our politicians. If we don’t like what happened in the Eddie Gallagher case, then we should demand change. Politicians will do whatever it takes to get enough votes. Whether or not the desired changes will occur depends on whether or not you and I speak up to our congressmen.

*** * * * * * * * * * * * ***

Now on pre-sale at Amazon!

SPYCRAFT: The Good, the Bad, & the Booty

Key Figures in Espionage

Join us as we explore the lives of these espionage elites and others who prove that “we’re only human” is not an excuse to fail, but a reason to succeed.

Click on photo for link to Amazon Pre-sale.

Pilgrim on a Lonely Journey

Nov27

Bayard & Holmes

~ Piper Bayard

This is the week of the mass American pilgrimage. Thanksgiving, more than any other holiday, is the day we Americans travel home. It is the one holiday we all share, no matter what our religion. The day when we gather as families.

Some of us will have genuinely happy reunions. The stuff of Norman Rockwell.

Most of us will have mixed days. A bit of hassle and a family fuss getting out the door. Then we will roll our eyes at Uncle Freddie’s bad jokes and Aunt Marge complaining that the dressing is dry. But once everyone settles in for the football, it will all be good.

For some, though, Thanksgiving will be a gut-wrenching ordeal — an endurance test of dysfunctional abuse that demoralizes and convinces us that we deserve nothing from life but the crumbs of inadequacy and failed expectations.

Most people who persist in that brutal existence do so from habit and from the fear of change. But a brave few walk away into the unknown with the conviction that whatever lies ahead, it cannot be worse than the hell they left behind. They quit showing up for the beatings.

If you are having joyful reunions this week, we celebrate with you. Such family experiences are the source of strength that sustains us through life’s turmoil.

If you are biting your tongue in between hugs and laughter, we admire you for your tolerance and commitment. Such commitment is the foundation of civilization.

If you are suffering, our hearts and prayers go out to you in the hopes that one day, you too will get out.

And if you are one of the ones who walked away, we salute you. You will be alone this week, or with close friends, or with people you barely know who have unfamiliar traditions. If you have persevered down your lonely path, you may even be with a new family by now, making Norman Rockwell jealous.

We know what it took for you to walk away, and we count you as our family. Your “not being there” didn’t come for free, and we honor the price you pay each day. It never gets easy, but it does get better. This song says it all.

Wherever you are in Life’s pilgrimage this Thanksgiving, we wish you peace.

Happy Thanksgiving!

From the Interview:

FOR THE REST OF THE INTERVIEW

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Bayard & Holmes

~ Jay Holmes

Syria

Hamas’ West Bank Competitors

Russia

Iran

The Houthis

Europe

The United States

The UN

Conclusion

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Bayard & Holmes

~ Jay Holmes

Jordan

Egypt

Turkey

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Qatar

Many Israeli politicians and military people were against the payments.

In the last six years, Qatar has been enjoying better relations with Israel and the West.

Lebanon/Hezbollah

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~ Jay Holmes

Ismail Haniyeh, Chairman of the Political Bureau

Deputy Chairman Saleh “Sally” al-Arouri, Theoretical Second In Command

Yahya Sinwar, Theoretical Leader of Hamas in Gaza

Muhammad Deif and the Tangled Web

The Abraham Accords

Hamas Is Not a Political Organization

Hamas Might Have Wanted This Response

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~ Jay Holmes

Warnings

Pop Media

What Took So Long?

Basic Strategic Realities

Factionalism

Experience Impacts Response

The System Was Working

Hamas Leveled Up

Those are, in my opinion, the major factors that led to a failure in Israel’s intelligence systems and the government’s failure to respond to the intelligence that was offered to them.

In our next installment we will consider the likely causes of possible failures in Hamas’s intelligence efforts leading up to their October 7 terrorist attacks.

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~ Jay Holmes

October 7, 2023

October 8, 2023

October 9, 2023

October 10, 2023

October 11, 2023

October 12, 2023

October 13, 2023

October 14, 2023

October 21, 2023

October 28, 2023

October 31, 2023

November 1 – 21, 2023

November 22, 2023

November 24, 2023

November 25, 2023

November 26, 2023

November 27, 2023

November 28, 2023

November 29, 2023

November 30, 2023

December 1, 2023

December 3, 2023

As of December 4, 2023

We are left with several questions concerning the Israeli intelligence failures in the current chapter of the Hamas-Israeli war, as well as observations of the motives and miscalculations of Hamas.

In our next articles, we will explore those questions, motives, and miscalculations.

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~ Jay Holmes