As an intelligence operative, Holmes has a passion for history, because if we don’t understand what happened in the past, we can’t understand what is happening today and why. Currently, he is catching us up on the increasingly worrisome situation in Iran, which means taking a look at Iran’s past. See Special Edition Iran – Timeline Part I, Timeline Part II, Timeline Part III, Timeline Part IV, Timeline Part V, The Rise of the Ayatollahs, and Iran Crosses the Nuclear Rubicon. Today, Holmes brings us to the present day and tells us what this means to America.
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What Iranian Nuclear Capability Means to America
After the election of hardliner ultra conservative hand puppet Ahmadinamonkey to the office of the President of Iran, his boss, the “Supreme Con Man” Khamenei, orders that the International Atomic Energy Agency (“IAEA”)seals at the Isfahan nuclear site be broken. The seals had been installed as part of an economic agreement with the European community. Europe attempts quiet diplomacy to try to negotiate for Iran to adhere to the agreement that they had pretended to agree to in 2003.
Iran breaks the IAEA seals at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. Muhammad al Baradei is concerned and now shows it publicly. US President George Bush announces that the US will not accept uranium enrichment by Iran. He fails to mention what “non-acceptance” would consist of beyond condemnations.
Iranian President Ahmadinamonkey proudly announces that Iran has enriched uranium to 3.5% concentration. This level of uranium is concerning, but not anything like the approximately 80% that is needed for a uranium fission weapon. Ahmadinamonkey understands this, and he knows that the US won’t go to war for 3.5% uranium, but he hopes to show that he has defied the United States and the West. His minority of supporters in Iran cheer. The majority of Iranians are not thrilled by the news.
July 31, 2006
UN Security Council resolution 1696 demands that Iran stop enriching uranium. Russia and China both cooperate with the resolution because both are trying to sell Iran reactor grade enriched uranium at high prices. The resolution proves to be as effective as most UN resolutions . . . . Not at all.
The Iranian regime hosts an international conference for Holocaust denial. Ahmadinamonkey pretends to think that Western allies invented the Jewish Holocaust after world War Two. Iranian apologists in the West will later pretend that Ahmadinamonkey never says the many hateful things that he frequently says. More than anything, the “conference” shows just how ignorant Iran’s Supreme Con Man Khamenei is about how people outside of Iran think.
Iran’s Holocaust denial scheme backfires on Iran. The UN is able to pass a previously stalled resolution blocking all vendors from selling Iran any nuclear equipment and technology that could be used in the development of a nuclear weapon. Thank you, Ahmadinamonkey, for opening your mouth. Please give that man a microphone more frequently.
I am at home in the United States. About twenty Cuban friends, their kids, and a few not so Cuban but otherwise perfectly good friends are over for Christmas dinner. The normal topics of discussion (screaming loud Cuban discussion accompanied by nearly non-stop laughter) at these parties is always philosophy and the political history of Spain, Cuba, and the United States (not in any particular order). We always reserve a portion of time for insulting comments about the Soviets and their history.
Tonight we divert from our normal agenda and discuss Iraq, Iran, and Bin Laden. The Cubans are a hard-working people. In spite of Ahmadinamonkey and the others on our list of creeps needing denouncement, we manage to work in our normal round of anti-communist insults for a broad variety of history’s retired Soviet goons. Christmas just wouldn’t be Christmas without cursing those folks.
Before we break open the Turron (my house has the only stash in town), we democratically conclude that the US and the West will not stop Iran in its nuclear ambitions until Iran is very close to producing and deploying a nuclear weapon. We hope that nobody miscalculates. With the cost of one dinner for about forty people, a few bottles of good Spanish sherry, and a little Cuban rum, we manage to serve up the same analysis as all the best think tanks in the West.
My sons and the visiting children love these parties. They consider them a private circus. They laugh at us. That’s fine. My Cuban friends and I require laughter, but we don’t dictate what anyone laughs about, and everyone is fair game. We stop laughing for a few minutes and toast our brothers and sisters who are serving in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other places around the globe. We toast our brothers and sisters who can no longer join our parties. We conclude with a toast to a better and more peaceful 2007.
The IAEA says that Iran has ignored yet another deadline for ceasing its uranium enrichment and calls for more economic sanctions. Hand puppet Ahmadinamonkey screams some more of his usual nonsensical denouncements against the evil Western World and the Zionists. By now, everyone wishes this guy would get another speech writer. Most Iranians are embarrassed every time he opens his mouth near a microphone.
Operating on the principal that one can never have enough enemies to fully enjoy in one lifetime, Iran kidnaps fifteen British sailors from international waters near Iran. The UK protests. Iran thumbs their nose. A few of the UK’s least intelligent journalists question how “this disaster could occur.” It’s always a comfort to know that not all of the West’s most asinine journalists live in the USA.
The IAEA announces that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon within three to eight years if left unchecked in its efforts.
Riots break out in Iran over gasoline rationing. It occurs to Iranians that it takes a truly “special and talented” government to manage to produce a gasoline shortage in a petroleum exporting nation. The various embargos have had some impact. Iran can’t manage its oil industry well without outside help.
The United States comes to its senses and finally cuts off the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and their many lucrative corporations from US banks. The White House admits what lots of folks have known for a long time. Iran is financing, training, and controlling the most active and best armed insurgents in Iraq . . . . Big surprise.
Iran launches a test missile that it says is for scientific research. Yes, that particular branch of science is called, “Hitting Europe and Israel with nuclear weapons.”
Ahmadinamonkey visits Iraq for a rousing round of denouncements of Zionists and the West. Everyone outside of his Shia radical supporters in Iraq and Iran yawns.
After disqualifying all of the opposition from running for office, the “conservatives” win another round of uncontested elections in Iran. In Iran “conservative” means, “I support Supreme Con Man Khamenei.”
The IAEA announces that Iran is still withholding information about its atomic programs. I’m in Washington that day. My friends and I have a chuckle about the “shocking” news.
Ahmadinamonkey congratulates Barack Obama for winning the US Presidential elections. Obama cringes.
The Iranian police state raids the office of the human rights coalition led by the Nobel Peace Prize winner, Shirin Ebadi. Iran says the office is acting as an illegal organization. This is true. Human rights in Iran are certainly not legal.
Shirin Ebadi, image from randomhouse.com
March of 2009
Iran’s support for US President Obama has run out. Iran accuses him of being another Zionist. Obama is relieved by the denouncement. Being liked by Iran is even more damaging to an American politician’s reputation than being liked by Fidel Castro. I can only assume the White house considered it a good day PR-wise. You’re just not a real American if Iran doesn’t hate you.
Iranian-American journalist Roxana Saberi is convicted of spying for the US by an Iranian court. She is sentenced to eight years in prison. The eight year sentence, rather than hanging, is clear proof that the Iranians know she was not spying.
The US State Department announces that Iran is the world’s leading terrorist supporter. The folks over at CIA shrug. “Non news” announcements are always a bit anti-climactic. Many employees remember to be grateful that they don’t work for State and don’t have to talk to the press.
Roxana Saberi is freed and returns to the US. Not sure who got it done. I’m glad they did.
After Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defeats a popular opposition leader named Mir Hossein Mousavi in a rigged presidential election, protests erupt across Iran. Mousavi is hardly a reformer, but he’s not Ahmadinamonkey so the public supports him beyond what the regime had calculated they would. The Supreme Con Man orders crackdowns against the protests.
After the murder of a female protester named Neda Agha-Soltan is filmed on a cell phone and posted on YouTube, cell service is interrupted in Iran. Approximately one hundred protesters are believed to have been murdered by the Supreme Con man’s goons. Hospitals report over a thousand seriously wounded protestors.
The international press catches on to what teenagers with cell phones have been aware of for over a week and starts covering the protests as well as they can. Several foreign journalists suffer beatings, arrest, and banishment from Iran. Several Iranian journalists and journalism students that cover the protests vanish.
Supreme Con Man Khamenei gets tired off Ahmadinamonkey pretending to be a real president and humiliates him by publicly demanding that he dismiss some of his key appointees. Ahmadinamonkey is filmed pouting. For once, the otherwise useless Iranian president provides me with a good laugh.
The Supreme Con Man announces that he has decided that the “opposition candidate” and his top supporters are not actually foreign agents . . . . Yeah. Thanks for that.
Iran stops denying that it is building another uranium enrichment plant at Qom, Iran. The IAEA is angry, and it only takes them two months to formulate a statement denouncing the Qom uranium plant . . . . Yeah. Thanks for that.
The denouncement is so effective that Iran announces that it will build ten more uranium enrichment plants. Given that they are already operating 1,300 uranium processing centrifuges, that would be about eleven more plants than they could possibly need for running nuclear reactors for generation of electricity.
The death of the one time Ayatollah Khomeini supporter turned dissident, Grand Ayatollah Hoseyn Ali Montazeri, triggers a new wave of protests in Iran. About 12 people are murdered or vanish. Montazeri was once considered Khomeini’s natural successor, but had broken with Khomeini because of the mass murder of opposition members in Iran and because of Khomeini’s insistence on absolute authority.
Nuclear physicist Masoud Ali-Mohammadi is murdered in Tehran. The regime blames the killing on Israel and the United States in an attempt to damage Iran’s nuclear program. He is not important to Iran’s nuclear program. He likely was murdered for openly supporting opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and for refusing to step back into line. He had told his students to not fear death when considering protest because death can only hurt for a few seconds, but that the regime had hurt Iran for decades.
Iran has stepped up missile production. The US announces that US Patriot Air Defense Missiles will be deployed to Bahrain and other parts of the gulf to defend against possible missile attacks.
Iran announces that it is “willing to ship its uranium overseas for conversion to fuel rods for peaceful use in Iran. The offer is welcomed but not followed by action. Russia has been offering the service for years to Iran. Nobody takes Iran too seriously in their announcement. In any event, the process would not prevent them from continuing to enrich uranium beyond the levels needed for fuel rods.
The UN imposes its fourth set of economic sanctions against Iran. Iran responds with the standard anti-American/anti-West/anti-Zionist nonsense that they usually respond with.
The international community condemns Iran for condemning Sakineh Ashtiani to death for “adultery.” Iran changes its mind about the stoning. Instead it stones her to death for an imaginary murder plot.
This sort of thing happens frequently in Iran, along with publicly hanging juveniles who are accused of homosexuality. Few cases make it to the attention of the international community, so when they do, some people are shocked. The condemnation means nothing to the police state that runs Iran under the guise of a “theocracy.”
Twenty-seven Shia Mosque attendees are murdered by a bomb possibly planted by Sunni terrorists in the land of Shia terrorists.
Someone in theBushehr Nuclear Facility forgets to not open porn on their work computer, and the system is infected with the “Suxtent Worm.” The infection spreads to other Iranian nuclear facilities. Too much porn sharing at work will do that. The press says it could have been a “Nation State” that did it . . . . Yeah. Maybe so.
Switzerland hosts international talks with Iran. They proudly announce that a diplomatic breakthrough has occurred. The breakthrough? They have agreed to hold more talks in the future. Nice.
Protests start up again in Iran. Iran is an old hand at dealing with this now. They have a regular “protest response crisis team.” You beat a few hundred of them bloody, kill a few more, and the others will go home.
Iran sends two war ships through the Suez to Syria. Well, one war ship and a support ship. This is the first time that an Iranian war ship has transited the Suez since the mullahs came to power in Iran in 1979.
In the dark comic opera that we call Iran, the rebellious child Ahmadinejad again makes the mistake of pretending to be a real grown up president, and again Supreme Con Man Khamenei publicly humiliates him by flexing his “supreme authority muscles.” Remember, Ahmadinejad ran on a sickening sycophantic political platform of “anyone who suggests disagreement with the Supreme Leader must be stoned to death twice” so his restrained temper tantrums are rather hilarious to observe.
Most Iranians find that it’s the only thing about him that’s funny at all. Iran is still not my particular war, but I keep hoping they don’t perform Gottendumerang. I hate German operas. Give me a nice Italian opera any day.
Iran announces that the Bushehr Nuclear Power plant is now on the grid. It is the first Middle Eastern nuclear power plant to go on line. The funny thing is that if Khomeini had not forced Iran back into his personal dark age in 1979, the plant would have been on line around 1985. The plant was originally a joint project between Iran and the USA during the reign of the Shah.
The US foils a plot by Iranian intelligence forces to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the United States. Iran denies responsibility.
An unexplained explosion occurs at an Iranian Missile development center. A Revolutionary Guards General is killed . . . . Only one?
The IAEA announces that it has irrefutable evidence that Iran is attempting to build a trigger for a nuclear weapon. The US, Canada, and the UK increase financial sanctions against Iran and freeze Iranian assets. The European community does not follow suit. In their state of financial crisis, they cannot ignore Iranian oil. The first Iranian missile could fall on Paris some day, but in the meantime, Paris cannot survive without the oil. The US and Canada can promise the UK that it will reopen wells and keep the UK supplied, but they cannot promise to do so for all of Europe.
image by Americophile, Wikimedia
Apparently concerned that not everyone on the planet is completely despising their regime, the Supreme Con Man’s thugs attack the British embassy in Tehran. Some of the younger thugs want to attack the US embassy, as well. The old timers have to remind them that the US has no embassy in Iran. Idiots. The idiots apparently enjoyed themselves, but the average person in Iran is wondering why In the name of God after thousands of years of seeking to refine a civilization they must now endure such madness.
European intelligence services are anguishing over the increase in uranium refinement in Iran. Iran has the missiles. Successive Western politicians have put this day off for “tomorrow” for a long time. We are out of tomorrows. Faced with threats of yet more sanctions, Iran announces it will close the Gulf to oil traffic. It doesn’t. Within the confines of White House instructions, the pentagon tries to answer media questions about “what if.”
The EU decides it can’t wait any longer to act, and it announces an embargo against Iranian oil. Iran responds by claiming that it will destroy any US naval vessels that attempt to transit the Straits of Hormuz. The US Navy sends another carrier into the Gulf, joined by British and French war ships. Iran does not attack them.
The value of Iranian currency plummets on world markets. Financial panic sets in Iran. Many Iranians have their accounts frozen.
Oil prices climb. Saudi Arabia (our “friend”) reduces oil production.
Iran continues to deny IAEA inspectors access to critical nuclear sites in Iran. The IAEA gives up and leaves Iran.
The US and Israel start openly holding joint meetings. The US starts issuing more direct statements concerning possible joint strikes by the US and Israel. At this point, the only substantial, unsettled question between Israel and the US is what will be the trigger to any strikes against Iran.
The White House is told that within two months, Iran could build a nuclear weapon. During this last week of February, doors in the Capitol start opening, and people start talking across the aisle. The political chatter decreases. Congressmen are looking a little more serious and a little less theatrical this week. Hell, these people are starting to look like a “government.” Welcome to the fight, people. I might have to start treating them with something like reverence . . . . Nah. Just joking.
February 29, 2012
The Pentagon starts entertaining the press openly. It announces that it is determined to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program. When the press asks if we have the capability to destroy the deep underground uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordo, the Pentagon states that it can destroy these sites with large, conventional weapons.
So this is where we are now. Don’t buy a bigger car this week. Keep a little extra food and water at your house. Fill your prescriptions early. Buy extra chocolate.
My best guess is that Supreme Con Man and chronic political miscalculator Khamenei is not convinced that Obama will strike. Short of a substantial strike, nothing will dissuade him from seeking nuclear weapons. The fact that his nation is suffering from the international sanctions is meaningless to a man like Khamenei. Iran, itself, has no meaning to him beyond his own power.
The ball is now in the court of Western leaders. US President Obama wants to avoid military action until after the next election. He may not have that much time.
It’s an uglier world again this week. Against all this, a lot of decent people around the world and in Iran don’t want this fight to happen. About now, we need somebody to pull another genie out of another bottle. I don’t have that bottle. I’m hoping someone else does.